Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Background:
Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

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Katy AM Gaythorpe, Kaja Abbas, John Huber, Andromachi Karachaliou, Niket Thakkar, Kim Woodruff, Xiang Li, Susy Echeverria-Londono, VIMC Working Group on COVID-19 Impact on Vaccine Preventable Disease, Matthew Ferrari, Michael L Jackson, Kevin McCarthy, T Alex Perkins, Caroline Trotter, Mark Jit

nthakkar kmccarthy eLife Research COVID-19 Measles Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 17:38

Mathematical modeling of endemic cholera transmission

Mathematical modeling can be used to project the impact of mass vaccination on cholera transmission. Here, we discuss two examples for which indirect protection from mass vaccination needs to be considered. In the first, we show that non-vaccinees can be protected by mass vaccination campaigns. This additional benefit of indirect protection improves the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination. In the second, we model the use of mass vaccination to eliminate cholera.

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Dennis L Chao

dennisc The Journal of Infectious Diseases Research Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 17:34

Insights into population behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic from cell phone mobility data and manifold learning

Understanding the complex interplay between human behavior, disease transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic could provide valuable insights with which to focus future public health efforts. Cell phone mobility data offer a modern measurement instrument to investigate human mobility and behavior at an unprecedented scale. We investigate aggregated and anonymized mobility data, which measure how populations at the census-block-group geographic scale stayed at home in California, Georgia, Texas and Washington from the beginning of the pandemic.

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Roman Levin, Dennis L Chao, Edward A Wenger, Joshua L Proctor 

dennisc ewenger jproctor Nature Computational Science Research Computational Science Research COVID-19 Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 17:30

Linked surveillance and genetic data uncovers programmatically relevant geographic scale of Guinea worm transmission in Chad

Background
Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten-year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission.

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Jessica V. Ribado, Nancy J. Li, Elizabeth Thiele, Hil Lyons, James A. Cotton, Adam Weiss, Philippe Tchindebet Ouakou, Tchonfienet Moundai, Hubert Zirimwabagabo, Sarah Anne J. Guagliardo, Guillaume Chabot-Couture, Joshua L. Proctor 

jribado hlyons PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Research Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 17:21

The Early Evolution of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Is Shaped by Strong Positive Selection and Tight Transmission Bottlenecks

The emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses through evolution of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) poses a significant obstacle to polio eradication. Understanding the early genetic changes that occur as OPV evolves and transmits is important for preventing future outbreaks. Here, we use deep sequencing to define the evolutionary trajectories of type 2 OPV in a vaccine trial.

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Andrew L. Valesano, Mami Taniuchi, William J.Fitzsimmons, Mdm OhedulIslam, Tahmina Ahmed, Khalequ Zaman, Rashidul Haque, WesleyWong, Michael Famulare, Adam S.Lauring

mfamulare ScienceDirect Research Polio Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 22:26

Role of masks, testing and contact tracing in preventing COVID-19 resurgences: a case study from New South Wales, Australia

Objectives The early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease, has the potential to spread exponentially. Therefore, as long as a substantial proportion of the population remains susceptible to infection, the potential for new epidemic waves persists even in settings with low numbers of active COVID-19 infections, unless sufficient countermeasures are in place. We aim to quantify vulnerability to resurgences in COVID-19 transmission under variations in the levels of testing, tracing and mask usage.

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Robyn M Stuart, Romesh G Abeysuriya, Cliff C Kerr, Dina Mistry, Dan J Klein, Richard T Gray, Margaret Hellard, Nick Scott

ckerr dklein BMJ Open Research COVID-19 Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 22:23

Chapter 10 - Mathematical modeling as a tool for policy decision making: Applications to the COVID-19 pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the importance of mathematical modeling in advising scientific bodies and informing public policy making. Modeling allows a flexible theoretical framework to be developed in which different scenarios around spread of diseases and strategies to prevent it can be explored.

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J.Panovska-Griffiths, C.C.Kerr, W.Waites, R.M.Stuarth

ckerr ScienceDirect Research COVID-19 Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 22:18

Modelling the impact of relaxing COVID-19 control measures during a period of low viral transmission

Objectives

To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission.

Design

Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim.

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Nick Scott, Anna Palmer, Dominic Delport, Romesh Abeysuriya, Robyn M Stuart, Cliff C Kerr, Dina Mistry, Daniel J Klein, Rachel Sacks-Davis, Katie Heath, Samuel W Hainsworth, Alisa Pedrana, Mark Stoove, David Wilson, Margaret E Hellard 

ckerr dklein MJA Research COVID-19 Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 22:13

Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study

Background

As lockdown measures to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection begin to ease in the UK, it is important to assess the impact of any changes in policy, including school reopening and broader relaxation of physical distancing measures. We aimed to use an individual-based model to predict the impact of two possible strategies for reopening schools to all students in the UK from September, 2020, in combination with different assumptions about relaxation of physical distancing measures and the scale-up of testing.

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Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, DPhil, Cliff C Kerr, PhD, Robyn M Stuart, PhD, Dina Mistry, PhD, Daniel J Klein, PhD, Russell M Viner, PhD, Chris Bonell, PhD 

ckerr dklein The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health Research COVID-19 Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 22:06

Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting

Objectives: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19)‐related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission.

Design: Network‐based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent‐based model, Covasim.

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Nick Scott, Anna Palmer, Dominic Delport, Romesh Abeysuriya, Robyn M Stuart, Cliff C Kerr, Dina Mistry, Daniel J Klein, Rachel Sacks‐Davis, Katie Heath, Samuel W Hainsworth, Alisa Pedrana, Mark Stoove, David Wilson and Margaret E Hellard

ckerr dklein MJA Research COVID-19 Thursday, August 5, 2021 - 21:50
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