Enterics

  • The seasonality of diarrheal pathogens: A retrospective study of seven sites over three years

    Background Pediatric diarrhea can be caused by a wide variety of pathogens, from bacteria to viruses to protozoa. Pathogen prevalence is often described as seasonal, peaking annually and associated with specific weather conditions. Although many studies have described the seasonality of diarrheal disease, these studies have occurred predominantly in temperate regions. In tropical and resource-constrained…

  • The seasonality of diarrheal pathogens: A retrospective study of seven sites over three years

    Background: Pediatric diarrhea can be caused by a wide variety of pathogens, from bacteria to viruses to protozoa. Pathogen prevalence is often described as seasonal, peaking annually and associated with specific weather conditions. Although many studies have described the seasonality of diarrheal disease, these studies have occurred predominantly in temperate regions. In tropical and resource-constrained…

  • Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico

    Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This…

  • Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial

    Background Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a feasible tool to prevent or mitigate cholera outbreaks. A better understanding of the vaccine’s efficacy among different age groups and how rapidly its protection wanes could help guide vaccination policy. Methods To estimate the level and duration of OCV efficacy, we re-analyzed data from a previously published cluster-randomized,…

  • A modular approach to integrating multiple data sources into real-time clinical prediction for pediatric diarrhea

    Traditional clinical prediction models focus on parameters of the individual patient. For infectious diseases, sources external to the patient, including characteristics of prior patients and seasonal factors, may improve predictive performance. We describe the development of a predictive model that integrates multiple sources of data in a principled statistical framework using a post-test odds formulation.…