The missing 27%

Though a wide body of observational and model-based evidence underscores the promise of Universal Test and Treat (UTT) to reduce population-level HIV incidence in high-burden areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the only cluster- randomized trial of UTT completed to date, ANRS 12249, did not show a significant reduction in incidence. More UTT trials are currently underway, and some have already exceeded the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90–90–90 targets. Still, even with high test and treat coverage, it is unknown whether ongoing trials will engage populations with the greatest potential for onward transmission to achieve the ambitious goal of reducing new HIV infections by 90% between 2010 and 2013. Ultimately, even strategies that successfully meet or exceed the 90– 90–90 targets will leave up to 27% of people living with HIV/AIDS virally nonsuppressed. The epidemiological profile of the ‘missing 27%’ – including their risk behavior, mobility, and network connectedness – is not well understood and must be better characterized to fully evaluate the effectiveness of UTT.