Measles

  • Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia

    Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including…

  • Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Measles Dynamics: A Simulation Study

    The bidirectional interaction between undernutrition and infection can be devastating to child health. Nutritional deficiencies impair immunity and increase susceptibility to infection. Simultaneously, infections compound undernutrition by increasing metabolic demand and impairing nutrient absorption. Treatment of acute malnutrition (wasting) can reverse some of its deleterious effects and reduce susceptibility to infectious diseases. Nutrition-specific approaches may…

  • Feasibility of measles and rubella vaccination programmes for disease elimination: a modelling study

    Background Marked reductions in the incidence of measles and rubella have been observed since the widespread use of the measles and rubella vaccines. Although no global goal for measles eradication has been established, all six WHO regions have set measles elimination targets. However, a gap remains between current control levels and elimination targets, as shown…

  • A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles case detection rates

    The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of underreporting can be generated at the much faster, 2 week time-scale associated with measles transmission. I describe…

  • Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Dynamics of Measles: A Simulation Study

    The bidirectional interaction between undernutrition and infection can be devastating to child health. Nutritional deficiencies stunt growth, impair immunity, increase susceptibility to both infection and more severe outcomes from common infections. Simultaneously, infections compound undernutrition by increasing metabolic demand, reducing food intake, and impairing nutrient absorption. Treatment of acute malnutrition (wasting) can reverse at least…

  • The Cost Saving Opportunity of Introducing a Card Review into Measles-Containing Vaccination Campaigns

    Since the prequalification of the Typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by the WHO and subsequent position paper published in 2018, strategies for roll-out of the vaccine have been under discussion [1]. The 2018 position paper recommends the introduction of TCV to be prioritized in countries with the highest burden of typhoid disease or a high burden…

  • Modeling the economic impact of different vial-opening thresholds for measles-containing vaccines

    INTRODUCTION: The lack of specific policies on how many children must be present at a vaccinating location before a healthcare worker can open a measles-containing vaccine (MCV) – i.e. the vial-opening threshold – has led to inconsistent practices, which can have wide-ranging systems effects. METHODS: Using HERMES-generated simulation models of the routine immunization supply chains…

  • Optimization of frequency and targeting of measles supplemental immunization activities in Nigeria: A cost-effectiveness analysis

    Background Measles causes significant childhood morbidity in Nigeria. Routine immunization (RI) coverage is around 40% country-wide, with very high levels of spatial heterogeneity (3–86%), with supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) at 2-year or 3-year intervals. We investigated cost savings and burden reduction that could be achieved by adjusting the inter-campaign interval by region. Methods We modeled…

  • Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

    Background: Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic. Methods: We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of…